Analyzing The 2022 Elections And Predicting 2024. Steve Williamson, Karen McClelland and Stephen Hanks welcome our favorite political prognosticator, Dan Singal, back to the show to discuss the midterm elections. As it turned out, his predictions were proven amazingly accurate. He was one of the few political scientists who rejected the idea of a red wave. Indeed, Singal predicted that Democrats would maintain control of the US Senate.
Singal says that independent voters carried the day. He also notes that the Supreme Court decision (Dobbs v Jackson) was extremely important and that things began to shift for Democrats with the improving economy. On the other hand, Singal explains that Republicans’ success in taking control of the House was aided by a massive anti-crime campaign in his home state of New York which saturated the airwaves. And he predicts that we may see more of that strategy going forward as a play for the independent suburban vote.
Looking ahead to 2024, Singal suspects you will see a resurgence of Democrats in congressional races. And he thinks Democrats will take back the House and either hold or pick up some seats in the Senate. “First of all, the economy is going to be much better then. Inflation will be tamed…And the second thing is that I think Joe Biden is going to be pretty popular at that point. You could make a case that Biden is going to go down in history as our best president since FDR.”